A gesture that put an end to six years of zero rate policy

The currency single European entered yesterday above historic new against the yen but to reach the threshold of 150 yen. The euro is exchanged in the evening against 149,82 yen after a peak at 149,97 Yen during day. The Japanese currency, that is, from a technical point of view, between a pillar of 150,10 yen and 149,30 yen for 1 euro support, is experiencing a new phase of withdrawal since Friday after the publication of figures for inflation lower than expectations. This weakness of inflation reduces the likelihood of a new increase in interest rates by the Bank of the Japan.

The main interest rate of the Bank of the Japan increased to 0.25 on 14 July. A gesture that put an end to six years of zero rate policy. Nevertheless, face to the dollar, the Japanese currency was slightly straightened after several weeks of depreciation. The greenback was exchanged against 117,15 Yen yesterday evening.

In contrast to their Japanese counterparts, tension on prices maintain the European and US monetary authorities on tenterhooks. It is the uncertainty of the evolution of us monetary policy in the coming months that always seems to dominate the concerns of stakeholders. At the time, the week begins in the greatest calm on the bond markets. Certainly, the place of London did not provide his usual flow of comments or activity, day holiday.

But in the absence of British operators have been added, a general wait at the start of a week especially loaded in economic statistics as well in the United States on this side of the Atlantic. Thus, despite the decline of oil prices, the performance of the loan to the 10-year us finished almost unchanged ( 1 basis point), 4,793, while the rate of the loan to 2 years is rewrapped 3 points to 4.877. On the old Continent, the German 10-year loan ended stable at 3,784, while the French OAT of same maturity rate appeared to 3,800.

Stakeholders expect an early clarification of the situation with the publication, today, of the minutes of the Fed (read below). The minutes of the meeting of August 8, after which the US monetary authorities had left their main interest rate unchanged, at 5.25, will be decrypted with attention. "The minutes of the Fed could reveal that the monetary policy Committee sees his decision to leave its rate unchanged as a break but not necessarily the end of rate increases," noted Barclays economists. "The minutes could also reveal dissension on the Outlook for inflation", added, recalling that the President of the Richmond Federal Reserve was not agree with the status quo decided on 8 August due to fears of inflation. "The minutes will specify perhaps to what extent these concerns are shared by the other members of the Committee," they conclude.

Additional factor for wait in the beginning of the week: the meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the European Central Bank, which must render its verdict Thursday. In Europe as uncertainty prevails, this time on the pace of the tightening of credit conditions.

Dresdner Kleinwort economists point out contrasting trends on part and of the Atlantic with a visible slowdown in us growth and a climate which is generally in a positive dynamic in the European Union. Therefore, the dominant scenario provides that American interest rates have reached a peak and monetary tightening should continue in the euro area. Nevertheless, Dresdner Kleinwort team expected this week, of the best inflation figures in Europe and the United States with a decline in expected estimate inflation for the euro area flash to appear Thursday.