But today the differences seem insurmountable

Finally! The stability and their Bavarian allies yesterday presented their common agenda for the parliamentary elections of 27 September in Germany. Two months after the Social Democrats. Why have conservatives waited so long Dissension, procrastination, procrastination None of this... Starting with a large lead in voting intentions, they just felt in their interest to expose to a minimum and to the shortest campaign possible. If history has already reserved surprises to the Favorites of the polls, is the asymmetry of the combat that will engage the two candidates in the Chancellery. Very rare are those, German, who are seriously considering the victory of the social democratic suitor, Frank - Walter Steinmeier, current Minister for Foreign Affairs, on the outgoing Chancellor.

It is firstly a question of balance, of style and personality. Angela Merkel has a popularity outside standard. According to opinion polls, if they could elect their Chancellor by direct suffrage, 55 of the Germans the plébisciteraient, barely 20 would prefer his rival. It could be so surprised. After all, sentenced to form a grand coalition with the SPD after having disappointed in the 2005 elections, she had a fairly remote centrist policy of the values of his camp. She responded to the crisis later than its European neighbours, and it is more often than in turn déjugée in the management of the recession. Of the two great achievements which she could avail after three years in power, namely the spectacular recovery of public finances and resorption not less remarkable unemployment, it remains very much.

International stature

But the opinion does not see its mandate of this eye. The great coalition, which required its members to the everyday discipline of the compromise, was placed above the fray. "With its collaborative style, it has very well played his role as moderator, analysis Henrik Uterwedde, Deputy Director of the Franco-German Institute of Ludwigsburg. The Germans don't like polarization, violent polemics, the anathemas. German political life is placed under the sign of the consensus, not because federalism, which obliges the cabinet to deal with the Länder. Of the procrastination of Angela Merkel to the crisis, public did that his attachment to money from the taxpayer especially if it is to repair the carelessness of the Anglo-Saxon cicadas. The Germans are proud of the de la stature stature that she acquired on the international scene, "of his presidency of the EU and the G7, in 2007, the role it has played to back the Treaty of Lisbon on the rails', according to Hans Stark, Secretary General of the Cerfa, a"think tank"Franco-German.

Mention personality should of course also be: "it pleases by its simplicity, says Isabelle Bourgeois, research fellow at the Centre for information and research on the contemporary Germany (Cirac), it corresponds to strong German values, the jurisdiction, the work, but without making a communication plan." Everyone, German, remembers this photograph in the popular "Bild" newspaper, where the Chancellor expects turn to the Fund of a supermarket.

Finally, it is the "Kanzlerbonus" which benefited in their time, Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder. Particularly important in these times of crisis: "It does not change horses in a race," explains smiling Gerd Langguth, political scientist at the University of Bonn and the author of a biography of the Chancellor.

An embarrassing mentor

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, him, is not unpopular, far away. In terms of recognition in activities related to her Morocco, it rivals even Angela Merkel. As Chancellor, Steinmeier is a bosseur tireless, known as "records bouffeur" since the time when, in Hanover, he is escrimait for a... Gerhard Schröder. The lawyer has the same analytical intelligence than physicist. But, says cruelly Gerd Langguth, he "missed his conversion as a man of politics". Frank Baasner, Director of the Institute of Ludwigsburg, note is an understatement that "he did embodies not the ambitions of social democratic voters." Having never obtained mandate, appointed Minister in 2005 for the first time, he is unable to shed its image of bureaucrat, some newspapers write "candicrate".

Moreover, the shadow of his mentor plane always on him. Nostalgic Schroeder criticized Steinmeier did not have the same prolixity, the same power of seduction, and see him as an imitator. Supporters of the SPD who have never forgiven to former Chancellor his drastic reforms of the labour market on the other hand remember that Steinmeier was the principal architect. Each incursion of Gerhard Schröder in the public debate night thus to her foal, one way or another.

Last week, the "Altkanzler" is allowed a Conference of his former protégé chapter: "There is officials to know specifically criticize." A principle that Frank - Walter Steinmeier has not yet applied against the Chancellor. Without even talking about the risk of alienating voters, makes the great coalition, it is true, the difficult frontal attack. And it is clearly not in his character.

Too wise. Too dull After a television broadcast in which he participated alongside his wife, Spiegel online, the most influential information site of Germany, headline: "the Anti-Obama". Without appeal. So why, then, last September "Without fee, without network within the SPD, he was able take advantage of a structural weakness at the head of the party", said Hans Stark.

CDU: strong alliances

The advantage of Angela Merkel is, also, the positioning of the parties on the political chessboard. It can rely on the traditional allies of the CDU, that serve as outlet for those it disappoints. Proponents of the employer wing condemn its "Hatzair" They refer to the Liberals of the FDP. Either they reassure rereading the statements of Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, the younger (aged 37) Minister of the economy powered by the CSU in Berlin, following the resignation surprised Michael Glos in February. With beautiful, star of the media, the baron (in the proper sense) arose, in the Government, as the guarantor of the principles of the social market economy. It soothes conservative frightened by the intervention of the Government in recent months (nationalization of HRE, partial of Commerzbank, Opel rescue). Traditionalists do not like the profile of Angela Merkel, remariée, without children, Protestant, sometimes critical for the Pope They know that the Bavarian sister of the CDU will be able to defend their values in the cabinet. The voice that she has lost by positioning itself at the centre, it retrieves them therefore among its allies.

Finally, if the CDU-CSU-FDP constellation fails to collect 50 of the vote, Angela Merkel can always attempt to seduce the Greens, already associated with the CDU in Hamburg. Former Environment Minister, Angela Merkel doesn't like to Cap his hat of "green Chancellor" (left to sit on it if necessary) The Greens, who have tasted power between 1998 and 2005, appear to be more flexible than previously.

The ability to rebound from the SPD

Frank-Walter Steinmeier plays a much more difficult part. Whenever he gives committed at the centre, it loses voters in favour of the far-left party, Die Linke. Or, ask ally at the federal level, this indirect heir to the former GDR Communist Party. The nightmare of the SPD, in this campaign, called Oskar Lafontaine, leader of Die Linke. Former Minister of Finance of Gerhard Schröder, the Party of the SPD in 1999 by slamming the door (very strong), it officially an alliance with the Social Democrats, while writing a program sufficiently radical to make it impossible. Theoretically, the SPD could attempt to join the Liberals, as in the 1970s. But today, the differences seem insurmountable. The SPD can hardly count on the Greens, the perhaps dubious fidelity.

Then, what The chance that Frank-Walter Steinmeier enter the "washing machine", as the Chancellery is nicknamed, is so low In the light of the last two elections, admittedly while the SPD an astonishing ability to mobilize its troops at the last minute. In 2002, Gerhard Schröder, given widely defeated a few months before the vote, has finally won on his opposition to the war in Iraq and its management of the flood of the Elbe. In 2005, the same Schröder almost managed a second tour de force turning mockery radical tax proposals of Paul Kirchhof, approached by Merkel as Finance Minister. Pollsters, this year also, find an over-representation of SPD supporters among the undecided: a reservoir of voice... Chancellor outgoing, she, crises of anxiety, can always consult the statistics: all chancellors from the RFA who have completed their first mandate were renewed.