4 in the first quarter of 2008 following a continuous slope 0

The financial storm part Monday on Wall Street with the collapse of Lehman Brothers has at least one good side. Somehow, it brings water to the mill of the 27 States of the European Union in their new attempt to obtain an easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Meeting last Saturday at Nice in informal Ecofin, the European Ministers of economy and finance indeed validated a strategy which, to be more discreet, is not less more skilful than the previous. Before the summer, they had tried to succeed by multiplying the pressure on the ECB and that it was led, early July, by... an increase in its main rate of interest, which had barely mitigated by the assurance that it would more before long. After the strong method, fresh. Nice, on the initiative, among other things, the France, European countries have chosen to caress the President of the ECB in the direction of the hair by an act of faith in the economic orthodoxy.

The credo of Nice worth almost conversion to the religion of Jean-Claude Trichet: not only the twenty-seven say reject any temptation to fiscal stimulus but they are wanting to all efforts to promote, structurally, by continuing to reform their labour, wage moderation markets. Rather than trying to force, they try to create an environment conducive to a relaxation of interest rates.

There must be two caveats to it. The first is that the promise to waive the budget weapon may be swept away by the power of the so-called "automatic stabilizers" in countries which, like the France, have levels of public spending and high levies, and accumulate them with deficits already very heavy. In our case, automatic stabilizer of decay that is the fiscal imbalance is likely to increase the public deficit in 2009, above the 3 limit required by the stability and Growth Pact. The French Government stands no excess of belief to a forecast of 2.7 for the next year. But, as the says, in private, one of Ministers of Bercy, "if it is not worse, can be pleased." In other words, the only set of automatic stabilizers designed to placate the European Central Bank assumes the leniency of the European Commission. However, on this point, Paris is perhaps a somewhat optimistic interpretation of the Temperance of the economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia. Because, if it appears to accommodate a rise in the deficit, he seems unwilling to admit an exception to the Pact, which "must be respected" despite the financial crisis.

The other limitation to the Nice strategy is wage pressures which have not disappeared, especially Germany, where negotiations to fall with the metalworkers unions announce particularly difficult. From this point of view, the ECB may continue to observe with concern that, contrary to what is happening in the United States, wage remuneration does adjust quickly to the decline in productivity on the Continent. Jean-Claude Trichet may be noted correctly that, in the euro area, unit labour costs have increased by 2.4 in the first quarter of 2008, following a continuous slope (0.9 in 2006 and 1.5 in 2007). The message of the Ecofin would have also been stronger if countries such as the Spain or the Greece agreed to return to their mechanism of price wage indexation, machine to create inflation.

By "chance", however, the financial Gale which affects Europe, since the United States, comes indirectly support the strategy developed at Nice by the deflationary impact of the liquidity crisis. The sensitive tightening of credit conditions is at least good. The impressive decline in the prices of oil, to the threshold of $ 90 per barrel in New York after having reached 147 dollars in early summer, it should help change the perception of the inflationary expectations that hunts the Central Bank. Somehow, markets have "done the job" instead of Europeans of economy and Finance Ministers. It takes no more for today ' hui, at the top of Bercy, some like to expect a lower European rates early October. And yesterday, the General Director of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has also seen "in the margins of manoeuvre" for the ECB if the price pressures continue to decline.

It is a glimmer of hope in the midst of the storm but remains thin. For three reasons primarily. The first is that Jean-Claude Trichet is no sign indicating that he démordrait his usual line to respond by the volume rather than the rates in the credit crisis. On the contrary: the ECB still yesterday and injected before some 100 billion euros in the money market. The second pillar to our hopes is that the President of the ECB should be that half reassured by reading of last digit inflation in the euro area. Of course, it fell to 3.8 on a year in August, after 4 in July, appearing to accredit the idea that the peak is well spent. But excluding volatile products, underlying inflation returned 0.2 point, with inflation expectations. From Frankfurt, is really not good news. The third element which encourages caution is in the query on the character, sustainable or not, from receding oil prices: the idea that it is only linked to the slowdown in demand, and not speculation is not yet fully convincing.